Quote:
Sen. John McCain’s chances of winning California this fall are looking poorer, as a new Field Poll shows the likely Republican nominee trailing Sen. Barack Obama by 24 points. (from today’s Capitol Alert)
Quote:
State Treasurer Kathleen Brown, [incumbent Governor Pete Wilson’s] Democratic opponent and the latest member of the Brown political dynasty to seek the California governorship, has slipped into second place after leading the race for the better part of a year, at one time by more than 20 points. (NYTimes, Sept 19, 1994)
Quote:
Wilson defeated Kathleen Brown by 55 percent to 40 percent. (The Weekly Standard, Oct 20, 2003)
Observations:
1) The change in the Brown/Wilson race was a swing of more than 35%. “Political experts” were predicting there was no way Wilson could beat Brown. [citation needed]
2) McCain’s chances of winning California have never been anything other than poor.
3) Obama will win California in November but it will be much closer than 24%.
4) People are a) sheep and b) fickle.